marine weather discussion
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
236 PM EDT Tue 16 Mar 2010

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

The last asct pass indicated gale force winds over the se
portion of nt1 and the NE portion of nt2. The latest sfc
observations showed most of the buoys W and N N to NE winds 15
to 25 kt with gusts arnd 25 to 30 kt. Elsewhere winds to N 15 to
25 kt from Hatteras Canyon S to 31n. The 18z sea state still had
12 to 24 ft N of Baltimore Canyon 6 to 13 ft E of 1000 and S of
Baltimore Canyon and 3 to 6 ft over the SW nt2 waters.

Low pres well se of Georges Bank will continue to move away from
the area tonight and Wed. A second low E of the central nt2
waters will dissipate overnight. High pres will build S across
the nt1 waters overnight then drift S over nt2 Wed into Wed
night. A cold front will dip S into the nt1 waters Thu and lift
back N as a warm front Fri. A low pres center will develop S of
the waters Wed and move NE across the srn nt2 area Wed night
into Thu night. High pres will build E across the region Fri and
Sat then pass E of the area sun. A cold front will approach the
waters from the W sun.

The models are in good agreement so will use the GFS with one
exception. For the short term will end the gale force winds over
nt1 and only keep for Baltimore Canyon to the Hague line and NE
portion of Hatteras Canyon to Baltimore Canyon. Expect all
warning to end after midnight.

The GFS is too strong with the low that develops S of the nt2
waters Wed. The GFS moves the low NE into the Hatteras Canyon to
Cape Fear area and deepens the low to 1003 mb gale. All the
other model keep the low drift to the E or NE and are weaker.
Prefer the weaker solution for now and will keep winds 15 to 25
kt Max. Late sun a cold front approach from the W with a strong
S flow developing across the offshore waters. Have gale force
winds developing S of Baltimore Canyon to 31n...will hold off on
areas N of the Gulf Stream with the cold SST.

For seas will use the wna version of the ww3. The strong low is
moving away from the area with seas slowly subsiding for the
next 48 hr. For Fri from S of Cape Hatteras to 31n the GFS may
be over doing developing low and seas are reflecting this
trend.Plan to cut 2-3 ft from fcst. Also in the strong S flow on
day 5 model may build seas too fast with waa over the cold
waters N of Gulf Stream. For now will cut values 2 ft.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...the 12z run shows Max surge
overnight at 1 ft from Delaware Bay to Long Island. The models
is under a ft from late Wed into Sat. This look reasonable with
high pres building into the area.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are
subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS
12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters
.Gulf of Maine...None.
.Georges Bank...None.
.S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters
.Hudson to balt cnyn...None.
.Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale tngt...hi confdc.
.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale tngt...MDT confdc. Gale
sun...low confdc.
.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale sun...low confdc.
.Cape Fear to 31n...Gale sun...low confdc.

.Forecaster oszajca. Ocean forecast branch.

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