564 axpz20 knhc 161554 twdep
Tropical weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 16 2010
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n...east of 140w.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC.
...ITCZ... axis is along 05n76w to 04n86w to 06n103w to 05n122w to 04n140w. Scattered to numerous strong within 150 nm either side of axis E of 89w. Scattered moderate isolated strong within 240 nm N of axis between 98w and 115w. Scattered moderate within 120 nm N of axis W of 122w.
...Discussion... a broad upper level trough is over the far NW portion of the discussion area N of 26n W of 135w. High level moisture is within 300 nm E of the trough. A 95-105 kt jetstream is S of the trough from 25n140w to 25n130w. Downstream upper level ridge covers the area N of 20n between 115w-130w. Strong subsidence with dry stable air at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is within the ridge. Upper level trough extends from a well defined cyclonic circulation over W Texas across NW Mexico to the southern Baja Peninsula. SW flow E of the trough is advecting abundant tropical moisture across central Mexico. In the deep tropics an anticyclonic circulation is centered near 7n95w...with ridge extending from the anticyclone ENE to Nicaragua. Moderate to strong subsidence over Central America with convection limited to the ITCZ.
Cold front was relocated using visible stlt imagery...extending from 30n133w to 25.5n140w. NE winds of 20 kt were W of the front with building seas 12 to 15 ft in NW swell. The front is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday. Otherwise a surface ridge covers the area N of 15n W of 115w. Trades at 20-25 kt are from 5n-20n W of 120w with mixed seas of 9-12 ft in NW...NE and SW swell. A couple of troughs are analyzed along the ITCZ. The first along 104/105w and the second along 122w.
Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to begin 20-25 kt by 00 UTC this evening and then blast quickly to gale force around 06 UTC as strong high pres builds behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico and tightens the gradient over southern Mexico. Gales are expected to persist through 48 hours before diminishing.
For additional information please visit http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine
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